https://www.lineameteo.it/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=10618&p=273399#p273399
-----------------------------------
marvel
Gio 25 Ott, 2012 06:48

Re: USA: si potrebbe scatenare una vera "Tempesta Perfetta"
-----------------------------------
il 5% di possibilità veniva dato ieri mattina, ad oggi le possibilità sono superiori al [url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/monster-east-coast-storm-next-week-or-big-miss/2012/10/22/94bc2152-1c72-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html#pagebreak]50% (Link), forse ora saranno anche al 70%. Un 20% viene dato per la capitale, Washington, ma non mai è stata il target di questa tempesta, che vede più a rischio le località costiere.

[i]CMC and Navy NOGAPS (1200 UTC) agree on some hybrid system, with the former taking the LL into the coastal low and becoming a bomb by 30 Oct , and the rest of the storm becoming barotropic and extratropical ~120 hrs out/by 1200 Z on 29 Oct; the latter shows a combined hybrid system 144 horus out, or 30 Oct. GFS has the system intensifying then stalling over Sargasso Sea b/t a baroclinic low situated W of Azores, and a stalled East Coast trough; curiously, all three show a retrograde towards the NE Coast, indicating a planetary wave, similar to Oct. 1991 storm. Better idea 36 hrs out.[/i]

Update: [i]As of Wednesday at noon, Sandy’s winds have reached 80 miles per hour, leading to it being officially upgraded to a hurricane as is nears Jamaica. Brian McNoldy at the Capital Weather Gang now says that the “odds of an East Coast impact grow,” as an increasing number of models show it turning towards the East Coast after passing by the Carolinas. He notes that one particularly ominous projection “places an incredibly strong cyclone off the New Jersey coast on Monday evening…with tropical storm to hurricane force winds covering every state between Virginia and Maine…A scenario such as this would be devastating: a huge area with destructive winds, extensive inland flooding, possibly heavy snow on the west side, and severe coastal flooding and erosion.”[/i]

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50133778n&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CBSNewsVideo+(News+Video%3A+CBSNews.com)

[img cache=false]http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/science/files/2012/10/Sandy-Model-Image.png[/img]

GFS ieri era meno propenso (vedi immagine), oggi si è accodato al modello di Reading e agli altri.
[img cache=false]http://www.climatecentral.org/images/uploads/blogs/10_23_12_andrew_ensembletrackplot.png[/img]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/will-sandy-hit-the-east-coast/1922219859001

[img cache=false]http://sirocco.accuweather.com/adc_hurr_images/2012/aS/uhaS_2_640x480.gif[/img]